MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3084c58e8788f3ba6ea06675da22c29e36334a2feeab0cff66f08933735cf6a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 763.5$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.56 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 619.58$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.77 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 595.71$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 500.37$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.21 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 13c | 445.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 440.97$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 435.87$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 430.2$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.8 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 302.75$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 300$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 252.33$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 251.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 12c | 157.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 130.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 128.17$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 121.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 109.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 101.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 94.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 92.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 54.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 53.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 51.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 49.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 34.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 28.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 26.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 24.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.