MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f82b2ff9ca65962fb4e709904932d25d17f336abe7c2ee6fe43e6f3c356cd54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 55c | 2,975$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.05 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 48c | 2,468$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.66 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 1,951$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.71 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 62c | 1,684$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 1,638$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.43 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 51c | 1,189$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.63 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 49c | 1,046$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.44 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 50c | 996$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Under | 60c | 976$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.6 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…0a6ebacked Over | 59c | 760.48$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 738.76$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.93 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Under | 55c | 714.17$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.58 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 674.69$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.21 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 601.89$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 41c | 601.49$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.96 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 491.6$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.56 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 397.05$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 56c | 394.31$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.81 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 386.17$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.29 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 4c | 374.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 32c | 311.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 51c | 297.37$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 51c | 297.37$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 51c | 297.37$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 51c | 297.37$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 51c | 297.37$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 42c | 219.71$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.72 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 45c | 203.92$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 6c | 171.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 52c | 168.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 158.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 144.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 45c | 122.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Over | 45c | 117.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 43c | 101.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 99.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 76c | 88.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 82.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 67c | 81.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 46c | 79.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 41c | 77.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 55c | 65.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 28c | 58.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 44c | 55.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 48.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 51c | 45.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6d7bbacked Under | 33c | 43.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 42c | 37.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 41c | 35.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 43c | 34.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Under | 35c | 31.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 44c | 28.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x673b…62dbbacked Over | 42c | 27.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 26.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…36c6backed Under | 43c | 23.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Over | 69c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 58c | 18.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.