Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30ebd0ac415de01a75974a30457f1340efba70fc0ed4a4924440b2bc8f954baa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 73,594$8,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,224.81 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Yes | 11c | 20,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 12c | 12,262$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.41 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f102backed Yes | 11c | 7,350$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.5 | 564 | 10.5%59 W · 505 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…2b5ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,167$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…9903backed Yes | 12c | 1,917$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 124 | 30.6%38 W · 86 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 11c | 1,914$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.58 | 403 | 43.7%176 W · 227 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,779$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 324 | 22.5%73 W · 251 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…0598backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…c587backed Yes | 11c | 1,273$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5161…bf33backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 796.81$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…6aa8backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e8…1386backed Yes | 21c | 481.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…f19fbacked Yes | 16c | 473.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 229 | 31%71 W · 158 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f79…9290backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 41.9%44 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b1…e789backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +14.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc977…56f1backed Yes | 11c | 445.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe00…e985backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…40c4backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 232 | 18.1%42 W · 190 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 406.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4372…6a96backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 269 | 21.6%58 W · 211 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca9…d17cbacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e9…a226backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…ac8ebacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…b615backed Yes | 11c | 331.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 632 | 29.3%185 W · 447 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…7514backed Yes | 12c | 315.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 17c | 298.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 508 | 33.3%169 W · 339 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 283.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…513ebacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…ee94backed Yes | 12c | 257$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…5554backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 345 | 24.1%83 W · 262 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…66a1backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…ac9bbacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…39d3backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8313…40c3backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 12c | 205.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 248 | 25.8%64 W · 184 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c7…6021backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 25.3%47 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…6efabacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e9…00f8backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5233…37c1backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9e…50eebacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d94…cee1backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…d63ebacked Yes | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…d5b2backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 11c | 150.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 736 | 26.5%195 W · 541 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…7277backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4d…5b1dbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…26f7backed Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…b161backed Yes | 12c | 141.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488d…845dbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 15.7%11 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 26.1%74 W · 209 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…95bfbacked Yes | 12c | 132.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…cc1fbacked Yes | 15c | 131.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…3df0backed Yes | 15c | 128.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4c…b0bfbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…8339backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 19.5%33 W · 136 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…5f5dbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 13c | 118.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Yes | 12c | 100.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -9.8wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…0cc8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…f9f8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…12e6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8855…0557backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b2…70f0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca5…08f1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5022…2b5dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4c…f3bfbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 13c | 95.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,206 | 32.7%394 W · 812 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…83e2backed Yes | 12c | 85.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 351 | 10.8%38 W · 313 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…3d25backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…9a30backed Yes | 15c | 74.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 281 | 27.8%78 W · 203 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…f897backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…6f17backed Yes | 20c | 50.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?Yes won
- Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia?No won
- Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.