Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Luca Nardi vs Yibing Wu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3166331d270cf8ac0c32d4a328e1e71067f84b4ef422ff98097213057abf65a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wuof Nardi, Wu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wu | 76c | 5,170$3,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.72 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Nardi | 22c | 4,504$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.95 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Nardi | 35c | 3,797$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.1 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nardi | 27c | 2,414$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.47 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wu | 62c | 2,363$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.95 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Wu | 78c | 1,923$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.08 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Nardi | 23c | 1,920$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.8 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Nardi | 30c | 1,747$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.98 | 447 | 54.4%243 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wu | 70c | 1,512$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.5 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wu | 76c | 1,405$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.18 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wu | 61c | 1,347$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.71 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Nardi | 24c | 810.53$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.57 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Wu | 78c | 635.13$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…ecadbacked Nardi | 31c | 573.69$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nardi | 20c | 541.31$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8f…8ed0backed Nardi | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Wu | 64c | 449.85$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Nardi | 26c | 437$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Nardi | 26c | 368.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…4d09backed Nardi | 16c | 274$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Wu | 72c | 267.84$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Wu | 66c | 228$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Nardi | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Nardi | 31c | 195.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…61bdbacked Nardi | 24c | 154$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…60e2backed Nardi | 16c | 148$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…8b7dbacked Nardi | 20c | 144.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 268 | 37.3%100 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Nardi | 23c | 143.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Wu | 78c | 141.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2254backed Wu | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wu | 77c | 124.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Wu | 76c | 100.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Wu | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Wu | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nardi | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Wu | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Nardi | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…80cbbacked Wu | 49c | 84.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Nardi | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Wu | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Nardi | 25c | 66.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Wu | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Nardi | 29c | 62.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Nardi | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Wu | 77c | 54.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Nardi | 32c | 54.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Wu | 79c | 52.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88d…2f28backed Wu | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87a…2ee0backed Nardi | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Nardi | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Nardi | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…c9a6backed Wu | 61c | 45.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Wu | 58c | 43.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Nardi | 31c | 40.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Nardi | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Wu | 78c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…a505backed Wu | 59c | 33.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Wu | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Wu | 79c | 31.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…b8bcbacked Wu | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…4605backed Wu | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked Wu | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Wu | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Wu | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wu | 68c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Wu | 80c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…be67backed Wu | 77c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Luca Nardi vs Yibing Wuthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Nardi vs WuWu won
- Set Handicap: Wu (-1.5) vs Nardi (+1.5)Wu won
- Set Handicap: Wu (-2.5) vs Nardi (+2.5)Nardi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.