Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3176a2857dd9618f596febc27993065db0f238bf171422f05441c4263b481e4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 34c | 5,000$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.77 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 67c | 2,137$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.81 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 65c | 1,233$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.12 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,224$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 1,069$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 34c | 469$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.46 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed No | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 72c | 406.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 33c | 400.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.22 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…00f1backed Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 66c | 340.87$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.94 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 30c | 338.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 6c | 238.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 35c | 216.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…b006backed No | 64c | 205.62$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 16c | 205.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Yes | 11c | 202$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 29c | 148.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 77c | 147.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked No | 65c | 138.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 78c | 131$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 35c | 127.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 70c | 124$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed No | 64c | 123$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 120.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Yes | 38c | 112.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed No | 68c | 111.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 35c | 107.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 107.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 32c | 106$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 64c | 102.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…616dbacked Yes | 29c | 102.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 76c | 99.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 78c | 95.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed No | 66c | 91.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed No | 64c | 86.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 35c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 65c | 81.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 66c | 79.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…b577backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 61c | 73.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed No | 64c | 73.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 33c | 67.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 66c | 64.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c1…656dbacked Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…92e9backed No | 69c | 54.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 66c | 52.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…b8edbacked Yes | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…9cf1backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Yes | 36c | 41.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 79c | 40.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 72c | 37.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…a49ebacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798a…ba5fbacked No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 34c | 35.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 62c | 32.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 34c | 30.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 37c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed No | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 65cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…b44fbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b8…19e4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 65c | 21.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 64c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 72c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-19?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.