Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f0cff44b47b581e95f018bbe7619d9cfbf0650002fdf556891d5bedca5cb76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 24c | 7,495$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.8 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed No | 76c | 2,500$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked No | 76c | 2,042$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 1,292$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.05 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 1,250$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 15c | 721.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 77c | 608.06$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.27 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Yes | 25c | 406$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 76c | 383.67$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 64c | 322.52$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 21c | 311$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 80c | 303.35$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 19c | 286.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 234.67$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 74c | 220.12$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 20c | 146.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Yes | 20c | 136.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +512.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 31c | 125.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 19c | 109.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 78c | 107.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 77c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 74c | 97.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 24c | 80.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed Yes | 23c | 79.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 64c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 77c | 77.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 23c | 64.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 76c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…957ebacked Yes | 23c | 51.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 63c | 49.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…eff6backed Yes | 26c | 45.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 74c | 44.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 75c | 39.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 76c | 28.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 74c | 27.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…6e45backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 75c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.