NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x317778f7183b4fd7bef087d6f99960ee53b965254c4f56c4a637a3ccbc628209
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Pistons, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pistons | 49c | 14,410$7,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,100.57 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Clippers | 52c | 8,167$4,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920.18 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 50c | 3,845$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,923.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Clippers | 56c | 2,827$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.91 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pistons | 41c | 2,400$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.99 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Pistons | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Clippers | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.47 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 49c | 1,139$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Clippers | 59c | 975$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.75 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pistons | 44c | 915.87$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.22 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…1721backed Clippers | 52c | 796$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…741ebacked Pistons | 49c | 760$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Clippers | 52c | 756$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.51 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Clippers | 50c | 696$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Clippers | 50c | 667.28$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.89 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Clippers | 58c | 661$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.66 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Pistons | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…9d33backed Pistons | 41c | 480.49$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 41c | 473.81$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…d13abacked Pistons | 48c | 426.27$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Clippers | 59c | 389.25$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.52 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Clippers | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 49c | 356.84$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Pistons | 46c | 128.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pistons | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…dee4backed Pistons | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Pistons | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Clippers | 53c | 91.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pistons | 48c | 84.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Clippers | 59c | 80.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Pistons | 46c | 74.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Clippers | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Clippers | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pistons | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…21e1backed Pistons | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…9fddbacked Pistons | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Pistons | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Clippers | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Clippers | 50c | 25.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Clippers | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Clippers | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pistons | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Clippers | 52c | 20.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Clippers vs. PistonsClippers won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.