Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3180928551b46d3a034158431c8f6da68230691e7c02ba5ca948bd3085a5785c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 2c | 790$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 374.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 12c | 270.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 268$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 48c | 245.45$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 239.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 222$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 14c | 190.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 155.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 153.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 146.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 138.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 39c | 138.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 63c | 136.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 127.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 117.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…4434backed Yes | 18c | 114.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 112.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 109.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 98.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 98.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 39c | 97.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 88.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 39c | 75.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 71.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 69.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 66.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 64.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 63.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 61.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 61.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 57.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 55c | 57.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 57.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 55c | 57.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5d…c45abacked Yes | 26c | 56.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 51.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 57c | 50.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…b634backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 64c | 48.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 48.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 41c | 46.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 41c | 44.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…8d22backed Yes | 39c | 44.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 43.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 42.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 42.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 48c | 41.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 39.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 41c | 38.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…5dc0backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…63ffbacked Yes | 50c | 34.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 34.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 34.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 45c | 33.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…3291backed Yes | 47c | 32.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 53cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 64c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 30.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…da03backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked No | 53c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 54c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 62c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes | 49c | 22.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 19.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…4c72backed No | 57c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 67c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 68c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.