Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72190a4a42a02af099e8aee2eb45b5d90e43cebfa09e80e85da5caf625cba37c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 62c | 735.43$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.28 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 22c | 626.04$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.42 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed Yes | 39c | 508.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 33c | 438.72$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 61c | 388$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.04 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 367.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 47c | 324.13$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 31c | 281.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 244.81$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 244$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 242.88$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 221.63$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 220.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 44c | 175.42$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 170.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.86 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 77c | 156.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 64c | 156$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 155.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 151.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 26c | 151.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.69 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 44c | 137.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 18c | 126.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 122.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 118.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 117.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 113.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 103.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 98.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 96.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 96.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 93.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 19c | 92.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 89.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 81.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 41c | 79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 52c | 77.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 43c | 74.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 73.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 71.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 51c | 67.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 67.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 66.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 60.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…6a03backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 59.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 43c | 59.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 57.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 56.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 72c | 54.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 51.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 50.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 50.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes | 39c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 45.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 45.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 40.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 40.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 27c | 37.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 30.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…da03backed Yes | 77c | 30.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 28.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 74c | 22.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b63…bd8cbacked Yes | 77c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 63c | 20.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 76c | 18.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 75c | 15.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.