NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a95899cdc48a054c583bb9086387532cabce9bf1748d46b38ca8aa4ff596cb

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Lakersof Hawks, Lakers
Resolved: Jan 14, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,588 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers	58c	3,249$1,874 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,375.52	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Hawks	50c	1,990$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.9	71	40.8%29 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers	55c	1,183$653 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530.34	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Hawks	36c	999.98$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.99	114	36.8%42 W · 72 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Lakers	55c	600$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Hawks	50c	434.42$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.21	123	24.4%30 W · 93 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Hawks	36c	425$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	531	34.7%184 W · 347 L	-11.7wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Hawks	40c	300$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.53	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Hawks	51c	300$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	635	55.6%353 W · 282 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x630b…34ffbacked Hawks	49c	223.94$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.14	98	43.9%43 W · 55 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Hawks	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	95	15.8%15 W · 80 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Hawks	39c	155.24$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92c3…65c5backed Hawks	21c	67.81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lakers	63c	64.25$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.71	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Hawks	49c	42.92$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Lakers	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	574	44.1%253 W · 321 L	-20.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event