NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd70cb042357a91898d380e5b39801ad92a4788fd445eb737227adcd6b448006b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 3,699$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 2,751$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.99 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 1,732$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.6 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 1,502$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 1,500$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.99 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,459$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.53 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 46c | 1,168$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.72 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 56c | 914.89$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.2 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 5c | 825.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 43c | 677.5$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.17 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 628.65$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.9 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Under | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 56c | 337$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 49c | 293.88$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.88 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 45c | 280$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Under | 52c | 234.62$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…4282backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 54c | 185.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 57c | 173.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 31c | 172.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…34ffbacked Under | 52c | 130.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 34c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…cf5abacked Over | 60c | 108.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Under | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Over | 47c | 88.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…a732backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 66.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 626 | 52.2%327 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 43.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 42c | 35.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5this page
- Hawks vs. LakersLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.