NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x197e6c7594ef623c211e1a27408a8eed39e6a59397edbce250acdf7fd7d28f4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Hawks, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Hawks | 38c | 145,932$55,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,394.91 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Lakers | 62c | 130,248$80,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,494.11 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Lakers | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 64c | 5,800$3,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks | 40c | 3,738$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks | 39c | 2,202$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.8 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 40c | 1,878$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Lakers | 70c | 1,300$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hawks | 30c | 1,164$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Hawks | 41c | 992.8$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.06 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 42c | 867.34$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.81 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Lakers | 55c | 589.13$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.11 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Hawks | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Hawks | 46c | 434.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…1f0cbacked Hawks | 21c | 240.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Lakers | 63c | 230.19$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d50…436fbacked Hawks | 29c | 169.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb9…afbbbacked Hawks | 14c | 168$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…d47abacked Lakers | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…5685backed Lakers | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Hawks | 44c | 101.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Hawks | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Hawks | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Lakers | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Hawks | 45c | 82.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Lakers | 61c | 80.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Lakers | 66c | 71.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Lakers | 25c | 61.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Lakers | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 442 | 43.7%193 W · 249 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 45c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Hawks | 36c | 37.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Lakers | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Lakers | 60c | 23.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6931…89cabacked Lakers | 66c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Lakers | 66c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)this page
- Hawks vs. LakersLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.