NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb3439be494261e6f387ad96e97080b41548d9997f3c10bffcc53ef421279bc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Hawks, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Lakers | 53c | 15,318$8,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,239.66 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Lakers | 53c | 12,548$6,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,897.13 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks | 48c | 11,927$5,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,665.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…b8f8backed Hawks | 47c | 10,638$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 47c | 6,094$2,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Lakers | 53c | 5,660$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.38 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Lakers | 53c | 4,522$2,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.46 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Lakers | 51c | 4,515$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,212.35 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks | 46c | 4,146$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.89 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb603…754bbacked Hawks | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Hawks | 41c | 3,659$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Hawks | 48c | 3,206$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.91 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers | 52c | 3,127$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.96 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 52c | 2,782$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.52 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Hawks | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks | 44c | 2,402$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.85 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Hawks | 48c | 2,062$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.76 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Hawks | 50c | 2,013$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hawks | 45c | 1,615$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Hawks | 47c | 1,342$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Hawks | 49c | 1,130$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.7 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 44c | 905.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Hawks | 38c | 829.16$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.19 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Hawks | 48c | 711.18$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.37 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 48c | 627$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hawks | 45c | 600$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed Hawks | 49c | 599.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…fccdbacked Hawks | 41c | 596.43$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.71 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Hawks | 48c | 587$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.76 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Hawks | 46c | 569.17$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.25 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Hawks | 49c | 510$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Lakers | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Hawks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Lakers | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Hawks | 47c | 210.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Lakers | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers | 58c | 127.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Hawks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Hawks | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…5d26backed Lakers | 54c | 91.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Hawks | 49c | 80.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Hawks | 50c | 72.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Hawks | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Hawks | 40c | 68.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Hawks | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Hawks | 49c | 58.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Hawks | 47c | 42.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed Hawks | 49c | 42.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Hawks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Lakers | 51c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Lakers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Hawks | 48c | 35.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Hawks | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Lakers | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Lakers | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd412…a150backed Lakers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)this page
- Hawks vs. LakersLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.