NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc602287a9d79a743f437edd5380235852623ff79593ce545f8aa8dfd000c0d1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 51c | 10,080$5,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,939.2 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 49c | 10,002$4,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900.92 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 4,439$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,384.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 50c | 3,133$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.56 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 2,400$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 46c | 1,800$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,110$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.76 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Under | 52c | 922.22$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.31 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 46c | 759.14$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.94 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…9175backed Under | 18c | 441.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…5a74backed Over | 50c | 399.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.58 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 335.81$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.86 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 51c | 260$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 250.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 73c | 218.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 54c | 187$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 52c | 168$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…2d19backed Under | 10c | 130.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Under | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 9c | 123.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 46c | 96.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Over | 47c | 58.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 37.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5this page
- Hawks vs. LakersLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.