NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde188c50bcedf63983d144ccc2156751ff84a9236eee91faa424041416029482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 50c | 9,741$4,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,822.88 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…8d3fbacked Under | 50c | 5,400$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 4,723$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 4,616$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.73 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 51c | 2,432$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.66 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 2,400$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 1,831$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.5 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…e821backed Under | 50c | 1,780$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 1,537$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.33 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Under | 49c | 1,500$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 1,367$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.21 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 55c | 1,335$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.06 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 796.42$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.21 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 612$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 311$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 220.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…f42dbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 144.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…0ffabacked Over | 51c | 129.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 52c | 96.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 47c | 71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Over | 52c | 67.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 50c | 61.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…7adebacked Under | 50c | 49.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 46.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 49c | 42.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 51c | 31.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…5848backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…18b9backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 25.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Under | 48c | 21.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5this page
- Hawks vs. LakersLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.