Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ed8d845a0bbcdbce545e1bb3c32dbe947413f4e0f4ce2021761198813b543b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 4c | 11,262$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 7,506$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.88 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 18c | 4,435$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.26 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 2,686$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.94 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…3051backed Over | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 60c | 2,160$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.93 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 80c | 503$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…257ebacked Under | 78c | 499.98$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 42c | 469.05$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 79c | 403.4$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 5c | 397.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 4c | 278$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 230.43$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 20c | 190.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 19c | 139.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 117.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 76c | 107.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 20c | 104.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +78%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 20c | 67.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 24c | 66.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…3289backed Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 74c | 56.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 68c | 45.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 76c | 44.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Under | 70c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 70c | 19.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Under | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 69c | 15.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-2.5)US Cremonese won
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.