Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x416a6e289edc87746810974ea115e66d11487c66729555f799dac1e7a61e1a14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 16c | 7,913$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.79 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Under | 1c | 1,955$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Under | 14c | 1,397$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Under | 18c | 1,106$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Under | 18c | 932.82$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…e592backed Under | 6c | 796.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 71c | 569.18$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 29c | 543.75$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.69 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Under | 19c | 526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb644…2925backed Under | 32c | 420.06$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Under | 21c | 353.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 29c | 341.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Under | 13c | 308.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 6c | 278$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…73dbbacked Under | 19c | 262.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f8…d11bbacked Under | 11c | 178.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…760dbacked Under | 21c | 167$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 79c | 164.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Under | 21c | 158.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 70c | 141.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ff…6465backed Under | 18c | 138.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Over | 68c | 119.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…f828backed Under | 21c | 93.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Over | 70c | 85.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…93a7backed Under | 20c | 84.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…e5cdbacked Under | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…3543backed Under | 21c | 80.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 80c | 80.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 70c | 77.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 68c | 68.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Under | 21c | 62.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Under | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb95…1d78backed Under | 19c | 51.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 67c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…f0dcbacked Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-2.5)US Cremonese won
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.