Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3200b23638137a161e7086430bb1594f9d318e0b4299708888489df70fca6b2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 614.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 310.31$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 27c | 289.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 39c | 244.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 152$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 135.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 121$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 22c | 100.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 53c | 100.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 11c | 98.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 94.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…b89abacked Yes | 52c | 83.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 79.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 73.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 45c | 71.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 69.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 16c | 66.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 80c | 65.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 72c | 59.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 59.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 56.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 20c | 52.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 45c | 50.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 80c | 46.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 36.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 53c | 35.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 35.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 34.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 31.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 29.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 29.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 62c | 22.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 17.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.