Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2edf51150678962bd2409088554a8fd6e91c0ae82cecf8446ca410d890a587f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 433.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 337.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 17c | 299.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 220.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 30c | 214.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 211.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 30c | 199.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 159.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 127.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 120.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 30c | 107.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 106.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 98.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 85.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 74.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 73.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Yes | 23c | 70.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 69.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 67.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 66.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 62.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 18c | 59.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 53.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 36.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 35.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 35.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 31.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 29.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 24.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 24.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.