Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3270602958ddf064c12225dd49c1689e69ce73051c308c4ec46f8a2aede7e896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bejlekof Sabalenka, Bejlek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bejlek | 31c | 3,816$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.14 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 2,899$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Sabalenka | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Bejlek | 29c | 702.41$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.54 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Sabalenka | 67c | 608.95$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 177 | 46.3%82 W · 95 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bejlek | 72c | 564.9$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.24 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Bejlek | 44c | 360.5$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sabalenka | 36c | 312.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Sabalenka | 75c | 285.33$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 271.71$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.69 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Sabalenka | 65c | 153$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Bejlek | 32c | 107.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Sabalenka | 68c | 101.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…64cebacked Sabalenka | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sabalenka | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Bejlek | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Sabalenka | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Sabalenka | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Bejlek | 33c | 62.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5d…474fbacked Sabalenka | 68c | 61.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Sabalenka | 67c | 50.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Bejlek | 33c | 45.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Sabalenka | 68c | 29.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d920backed Sabalenka | 74c | 23.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Sabalenka | 59c | 20.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Sabalenka | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sara Bejlek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara BejlekSara Bejlek won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs BejlekBejlek won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs BejlekBejlek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.