Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Bejlek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89fc4167635af339acf7cb3aab47d82ebcaabedb90468b6c2bc8ee727ab6830f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bejlekof Sabalenka, Bejlek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Bejlek | 35c | 7,498$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,873.54 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Sabalenka | 40c | 2,501$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,444 | 48.8%705 W · 739 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Sabalenka | 62c | 2,029$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.37 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed Sabalenka | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…474ebacked Sabalenka | 2c | 1,850$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 180 | 38.3%69 W · 111 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bejlek | 35c | 1,654$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.32 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Sabalenka | 66c | 1,421$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.86 | 1,020 | 49.9%509 W · 511 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Bejlek | 32c | 800$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sabalenka | 54c | 544.23$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.86 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bejlek | 21c | 500$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.38 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Bejlek | 37c | 385.68$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.83 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Sabalenka | 61c | 374.32$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 258 | 63.2%163 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sabalenka | 80c | 364.89$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.09 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Bejlek | 66c | 337.53$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…5cd9backed Sabalenka | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Sabalenka | 65c | 308.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sabalenka | 79c | 249$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Bejlek | 21c | 240$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 600 | 42%252 W · 348 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bejlek | 18c | 232.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.47 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Bejlek | 18c | 211.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.46 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Sabalenka | 11c | 118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Bejlek | 20c | 110.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 438 | 29.2%128 W · 310 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Sabalenka | 65c | 103.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 3,621 | 45.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Sabalenka | 31c | 77.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 669 | 38.3%256 W · 413 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…1754backed Bejlek | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…c9f9backed Bejlek | 39c | 61.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…20f5backed Sabalenka | 56c | 53.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b3…966bbacked Bejlek | 65c | 34.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Bejlekthis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sara Bejlek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara BejlekSara Bejlek won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs BejlekBejlek won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5)Bejlek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.