Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jan Lennard Struff vs Holger Rune
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32732293bc996698a06e74079ffc47baeda60a8b3a7b88557fa6714ffd380188
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Struffof Struff, Rune
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Struff | 27c | 19,985$5,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,596.65 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Rune | 73c | 13,924$10,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,164.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rune | 65c | 2,136$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.32 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Struff | 26c | 2,075$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.44 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Rune | 61c | 1,713$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.5 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Struff | 41c | 1,709$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.86 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Struff | 31c | 1,490$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.11 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Rune | 74c | 1,400$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Rune | 73c | 1,400$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Struff | 41c | 1,283$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.59 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…ee4fbacked Struff | 76c | 1,237$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Rune | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Rune | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Rune | 72c | 800$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Struff | 26c | 781.08$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Rune | 67c | 744.48$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Rune | 70c | 550$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Struff | 46c | 532.97$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.08 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Rune | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Rune | 49c | 467.49$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.07 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Rune | 24c | 421.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Rune | 25c | 414.31$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Rune | 65c | 383.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Struff | 20c | 381.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.56 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Struff | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Struff | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Struff | 25c | 364.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.14 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Rune | 75c | 324.35$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Struff | 38c | 315.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.79 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Rune | 74c | 306.76$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Struff | 50c | 300.88$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Rune | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rune | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune | 26c | 257.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Rune | 60c | 236.78$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Struff | 31c | 235.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Struff | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…c0debacked Struff | 32c | 190.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Rune | 30c | 168.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Rune | 61c | 164.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Rune | 18c | 163.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Rune | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Rune | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Struff | 26c | 135.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…9c10backed Rune | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Struff | 30c | 129.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Struff | 47c | 123.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Rune | 75c | 116.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Struff | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Rune | 72c | 94.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Rune | 74c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Struff | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Rune | 74c | 71.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Struff | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Rune | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rune | 72c | 61.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Rune | 58c | 55.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef4…0293backed Struff | 57c | 45.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Rune | 59c | 43.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Rune | 58c | 42.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Struff | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Struff | 52c | 38.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Rune | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Rune | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Rune | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rune | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Rune | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…9db4backed Rune | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.