Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32bec5ca08fe0e917008eef58a776a5bec8fdd23fe2fafa8e5d84a229b30fb99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 68c | 1,090$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.38 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 492.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 31c | 409.05$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.16 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 71c | 378.4$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 286$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 285.03$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…4d0fbacked Yes | 75c | 257.2$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 256.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.46 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 32c | 211.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.82 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 191.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 28c | 168$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 107.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 27c | 102.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 100.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 92.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 32c | 92.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 32c | 90.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 80.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 80.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 77.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 49c | 61.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 30c | 60.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 73c | 59.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 58.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 35c | 57.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 69c | 53.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 41.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 46c | 36.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 44c | 36.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 73c | 30.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 26.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 23.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 79c | 22.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 22.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadce…a482backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 67c | 19.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 74c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 72c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…e9afbacked Yes | 80c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.