Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32ea9a613c74a2a097f52f359e1eeadd7208d2e9a82a24800c1a9d04014e998e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 49c | 717.3$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.93 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 49c | 550.1$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.21 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 46c | 243.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 233.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 54c | 208.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 52c | 203.76$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 201.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 51c | 201$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 190.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 61c | 164.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 56c | 147.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 142.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 42c | 140$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 133.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 129.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 78c | 128.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 127.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 126.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 37c | 125.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 120.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 101.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 50c | 101.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 99.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 46c | 95.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 90.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 42c | 87.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 74.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 54c | 69.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 49c | 63.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 58.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 47c | 46.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 45.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 42.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 53c | 41.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 51c | 31.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 50c | 31.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 31.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 53c | 31.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 52c | 30.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 40c | 27.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 43c | 25.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 50c | 24.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 49c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.