Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3339d40ee18c8b6961fdb17c0d1d092d5a1c2aeb2f5c30f76bba754a06db6639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 71c | 16,268$11,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,773.07 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 80c | 13,329$10,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,682.42 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Up | 10c | 4,831$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.8 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…e459backed Up | 16c | 3,555$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.84 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Up | 11c | 3,462$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.79 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 46c | 2,317$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Down | 71c | 2,017$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.9 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 1c | 1,958$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Up | 20c | 1,931$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Up | 39c | 1,519$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.75 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 24c | 1,449$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.36 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 51c | 1,300$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.45 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…fcddbacked Down | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 63c | 1,021$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.74 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Up | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Up | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…3327backed Up | 58c | 1,000$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Down | 75c | 997.12$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.75 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed Up | 39c | 908.29$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked Down | 71c | 900$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Down | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Up | 50c | 837.63$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.81 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Up | 38c | 792.73$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.8 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888a…19ffbacked Up | 57c | 776.48$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Up | 23c | 705.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…15f9backed Up | 58c | 700$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up | 4c | 693.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…02d2backed Down | 76c | 600$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…13b8backed Up | 5c | 585.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…9923backed Up | 42c | 557.73$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…551fbacked Down | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…4193backed Down | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…b450backed Up | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2236…6e0cbacked Up | 49c | 498.92$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…caa2backed Up | 40c | 457.36$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b94…23eabacked Down | 54c | 409.9$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Down | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Up | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…044cbacked Down | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…cd68backed Up | 31c | 398.73$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed Down | 47c | 394.53$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.13 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Up | 34c | 392.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c2…f1d3backed Up | 32c | 370.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Up | 9c | 345.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…4035backed Up | 58c | 339$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Down | 54c | 318.92$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked Up | 61c | 313.74$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…896ebacked Up | 50c | 305$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Down | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Up | 46c | 300$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…fc87backed Down | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Up | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…3f7bbacked Up | 62c | 290.32$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…e1b9backed Down | 60c | 284.54$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…03fbbacked Up | 24c | 270$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Up | 44c | 235.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Up | 18c | 219.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked Up | 20c | 205$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Up | 49c | 201.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Up | 9c | 201.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…3c2abacked Up | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185a…3137backed Down | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…24dcbacked Down | 50c | 196.14$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked Down | 50c | 195$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed Down | 80c | 192.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…02c2backed Up | 6c | 181.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…0ba6backed Up | 45c | 163.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…89d2backed Up | 48c | 163$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dd…ee57backed Up | 54c | 151.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc860…826dbacked Down | 75c | 133.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Up | 17c | 125.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…b6c4backed Down | 43c | 121.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…ec6fbacked Up | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c8…72d0backed Up | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Up | 27c | 119.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…bd47backed Up | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4267…3e8ebacked Down | 58c | 107.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…dd1abacked Up | 48c | 104.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…0cdfbacked Up | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d28…6b73backed Down | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…d35bbacked Up | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Up | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…ce42backed Down | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Up | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75e…e27ebacked Down | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…eba3backed Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…23d2backed Up | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…c2ddbacked Up | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…f8e8backed Up | 28c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87eb…7976backed Down | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Up | 16c | 89.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3d…f1f4backed Up | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Down | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…c9b3backed Down | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…0a24backed Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Down | 60c | 47.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…fe34backed Down | 72c | 39.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…9f4cbacked Down | 48c | 36.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.