TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Downof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,212

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,153 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa98…90bbbacked Down71c16,268$11,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,773.077847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Down80c13,329$10,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.4229264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Up10c4,831$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.84515.6%7 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1460…e459backed Up16c3,555$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.84911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-69.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56f0…3068backed Up11c3,462$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.791811.1%2 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up46c2,317$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.562441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Down71c2,017$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.95149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Up1c1,958$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1993840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b67…1b07backed Up20c1,931$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5082…049dbacked Up39c1,519$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.754548.9%22 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Up24c1,449$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.361,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Up51c1,300$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.457960.8%48 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5074…fcddbacked Down54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed Down63c1,021$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.7430443.4%132 W · 172 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9c7…147abacked Up1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102536%9 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe157…51ebbacked Up25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7db…3327backed Up58c1,000$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Down75c997.12$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.755226.9%14 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd88…4037backed Up39c908.29$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.52737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-42%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe0c1…7edabacked Down71c900$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfe2…8c49backed Down56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.866761.2%41 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Up50c837.63$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.817244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Up38c792.73$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.813538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x888a…19ffbacked Up57c776.48$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Up23c705.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.12733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x500e…15f9backed Up58c700$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up4c693.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.821011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf3…02d2backed Down76c600$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc84e…13b8backed Up5c585.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…9923backed Up42c557.73$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3290…551fbacked Down61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6253…4193backed Down66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3f3…b450backed Up52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2236…6e0cbacked Up49c498.92$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.461450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0be…caa2backed Up40c457.36$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b94…23eabacked Down54c409.9$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.641172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Down73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Up54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+99%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Up42c400$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1686937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+289%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2797…044cbacked Down50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2003574.3%26 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc0a4…cd68backed Up31c398.73$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.75850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+73%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce0e…bac2backed Down47c394.53$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.133461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Up34c392.15$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.022737%10 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31c2…f1d3backed Up32c370.59$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Up9c345.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.034914.3%7 W · 42 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc74…4035backed Up58c339$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Down54c318.92$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.461030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb44e…681abacked Up61c313.74$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2771…896ebacked Up50c305$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed Down33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf60e…936dbacked Up46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.53641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x061f…fc87backed Down59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef34…9644backed Up19c300$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-81.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ec1…3f7bbacked Up62c290.32$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04ec…e1b9backed Down60c284.54$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7fd…03fbbacked Up24c270$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Up44c235.31$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2627322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa3a…e29abacked Up18c219.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40329.4%3 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-71.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e5b…292bbacked Up20c205$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0254…efdbbacked Up49c201.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.452330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-35.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Up9c201.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa290…3c2abacked Up47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x185a…3137backed Down46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4528…24dcbacked Down50c196.14$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.071675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe105…185bbacked Down50c195$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.562958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed Down80c192.98$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0411838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5d0…02c2backed Up6c181.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a5…0ba6backed Up45c163.4$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…89d2backed Up48c163$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47dd…ee57backed Up54c151.58$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4750%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc860…826dbacked Down75c133.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Up17c125.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.982536%9 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x425b…b6c4backed Down43c121.76$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9da9…ec6fbacked Up58c120$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02c8…72d0backed Up58c120$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+60.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d7…11b2backed Up27c119.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.853517.1%6 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-73.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd15a…bd47backed Up44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4267…3e8ebacked Down58c107.52$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d13…dd1abacked Up48c104.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467234.7%25 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cd3…0cdfbacked Up54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-83.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d28…6b73backed Down66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0c…d35bbacked Up60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb920…1b19backed Up13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1316137.9%61 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f0e…ce42backed Down46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Up22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-84.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc75e…e27ebacked Down39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e7b…eba3backed Up50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…23d2backed Up54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb66e…c2ddbacked Up20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a86…f8e8backed Up28c95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.315525.5%14 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87eb…7976backed Down80c93.75$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.75666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Up16c89.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.333565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3d…f1f4backed Up61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed Down54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.251618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.29per pick48cpaid-65.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5c68…c9b3backed Down39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb30…0a24backed Up50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Down60c47.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1939034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0735…fe34backed Down72c39.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.983100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc35e…9f4cbacked Down48c36.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.