MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33829314442f41c0b23e8e48c6e8bb8ba2efc4d46643bb9979bd991fb967855b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 5,141$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 4,642$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 4,483$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,284.82 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 1,413$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 1,399$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.49 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 1,190$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 49c | 1,110$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.3 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 1,002$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.98 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…2d16backed Over | 55c | 976$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 54c | 931.04$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 49c | 832.64$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.65 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 700$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 51c | 654.78$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.73 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 57c | 627.73$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.09 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 615.08$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 48c | 524.04$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.56 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 478.28$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.27 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 393.77$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 51c | 332.09$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.37 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 292.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 50c | 247.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 52c | 236.7$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 49c | 179.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 56c | 151.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 145$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 35c | 138.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 50c | 107.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 76c | 103.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 51c | 100.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 51c | 96.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 96.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 52c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 87.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 52c | 87.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 43c | 81.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 51c | 75.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 49c | 63.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 80c | 62.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Under | 51c | 57.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…cda9backed Over | 56c | 57.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 50.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 51c | 50.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Under | 49c | 48.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 52c | 44.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 59c | 42.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…8290backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Over | 52c | 38.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 58c | 38.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 37c | 34.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 30.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 51c | 27.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 48c | 26.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Under | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Under | 76c | 25.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 52c | 22.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dfa6backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.