Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33cd870eeac155aebfeeb9fc3f8cc5cd7c90073ae08d9e9d1e02ee89c9b61dee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 1,991$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.24 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 457.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 385.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 285.19$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 8c | 237.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 233$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 195.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5cf7backed Yes | 16c | 189.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 187.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 132$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 39c | 128.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 124.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 112.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 102$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 82.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 80.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 78.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 62c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 76.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 74.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 70.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 65.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 63c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…216cbacked Yes | 39c | 57.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 63c | 55.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c532backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 48.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 31c | 44.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 41.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 57c | 40.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 39.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 31.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 70c | 30.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 25.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 23.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…83b0backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 75c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.