MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3469a0f899fe59839965353556f663b4f1ab22565b880ec97621a2b681d4acf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 47c | 12,074$5,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,398.99 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 47c | 11,122$5,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,894.52 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 7,411$3,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,915.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 5,551$2,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,942.03 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 53c | 5,534$2,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,957.96 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 54c | 4,361$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.85 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 4,217$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.09 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 2,588$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 2,520$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.84 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 2,464$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 52c | 2,076$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.27 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Under | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 868.27$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 857.2$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.74 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 48c | 833.1$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.1 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 48c | 728.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.07 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 725.81$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.68 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 49c | 714.29$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.29 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 47c | 417.91$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.49 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 53c | 340.5$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.47 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 53c | 340.25$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.33 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 48c | 335.15$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.28 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 24c | 302$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 220$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…a6c0backed Under | 43c | 201.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 53c | 199.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 48c | 176.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 53c | 170.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 28c | 151.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 64c | 137$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 110.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 46c | 101.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 99.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 53c | 91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 60c | 50.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…4a0abacked Over | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 53c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 30.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 25.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 55c | 25.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…53d5backed Under | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572f…7c08backed Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.