TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,153 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates52c1,119$582 inWon+$537.92,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox69c945$652 inLost-$652.056,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates31c704.57$218 inWon+$486.1511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates42c597.01$251 inWon+$345.874,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox48c570$274 inLost-$273.68,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked Boston Red Sox49c356.35$174 inLost-$173.66055%33 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox51c342$174 inLost-$174.428,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox69c271$187 inLost-$186.998,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates73c152$110 inWon+$41.85,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates31c138$43 inWon+$94.654642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c123.28$64 inWon+$58.9912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Pittsburgh Pirates51c107.67$55 inWon+$52.2546444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Boston Red Sox42c81.13$34 inLost-$33.6858746%270 W · 317 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Boston Red Sox69c68.04$47 inLost-$46.9578854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Pittsburgh Pirates70c65.63$46 inWon+$19.425053.2%133 W · 117 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Boston Red Sox65c45.5$30 inLost-$29.581,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3459…caa6backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c36.73$18 inWon+$18.739349.5%46 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Boston Red Sox69c35.51$24 inLost-$24.4734149.3%168 W · 173 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…cee8backed Boston Red Sox69c31.96$22 inLost-$22.052254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox67c31$21 inLost-$20.771,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates72c27.78$20 inWon+$7.783,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox69c27.45$19 inLost-$18.812,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.