MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6638d1584cc13e84b56d13c7d553742ef00f95a71e36cad8e76f36ac4801dd42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 43,802$17,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,305 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 21,637$13,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,415.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 11,028$6,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,331.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 4,900$2,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,911 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 1,680$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.74 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 1,441$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.63 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 21c | 1,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 612.19$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.94 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 329$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 328.8$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 312.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 297.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.11 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 238.86$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 169.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 148$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 132.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 108.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 108.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Boston Red Sox | 26c | 107.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 93.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 86.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 52.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 43.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 40.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 36.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 33.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 32.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 28.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 24.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.