MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f3df3cad1bae8fa921a2cb47b8c00353c8f1b07470bd33c026f2fefcfa420a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 64c | 2,897$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.23 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 27c | 1,776$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 73c | 971.11$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 73c | 842$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 36c | 818$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 800$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 36c | 795.2$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.93 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 27c | 604.96$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.97 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 540.64$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 40c | 442.19$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 374.53$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 74c | 181.38$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 31c | 175.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.53 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 152.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 73c | 149.06$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 39c | 141.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 122.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 23c | 94.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 52c | 86.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 75c | 84.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 61.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 36c | 59.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 36c | 59.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 54.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 75c | 44.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 75c | 44.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 50c | 40.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 63c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…549dbacked Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…132dbacked Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 52c | 22.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 74c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…8eebbacked Over | 76c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.