WNBA · resolved market
Wings vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34cf1960f8b573c80420e920a323f2f3f2934366840acaacd5d04d9c678e71b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Wings, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Wings | 21c | 15,044$3,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,233.92 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Mercury | 78c | 14,533$11,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,266.66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…cad9backed Mercury | 80c | 4,959$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0292…4211backed Mercury | 76c | 3,982$3,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Wings | 21c | 2,700$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wings | 32c | 2,152$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.53 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Wings | 24c | 2,005$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wings | 8c | 1,571$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Mercury | 68c | 1,540$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wings | 25c | 1,326$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.46 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Wings | 11c | 1,284$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 67c | 1,260$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.44 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Wings | 19c | 911.22$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Wings | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Wings | 33c | 605.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc768…4532backed Wings | 32c | 576.23$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wings | 32c | 573.71$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.28 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Mercury | 79c | 486.34$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Mercury | 70c | 430$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Wings | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed Mercury | 68c | 323$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wings | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Wings | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Wings | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Mercury | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…66e6backed Wings | 32c | 293.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Wings | 21c | 262$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mercury | 70c | 240$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wings | 23c | 207.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Mercury | 76c | 188$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 71c | 180$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mercury | 68c | 174$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Wings | 31c | 159.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Mercury | 69c | 159.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Wings | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Wings | 22c | 148.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Wings | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Mercury | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Mercury | 67c | 87.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Mercury | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mercury | 67c | 63.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Wings | 33c | 61.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Mercury | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Wings | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Wings | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mercury | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Mercury | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked Mercury | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…a63fbacked Mercury | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Mercury | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.