NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3511298cbdc7bd706b8c72f0731ba24dc8b3990c4978bfadfcbc41befc016fa5

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,514
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,514 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5d76…9168backed Over	48c	9,000$4,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,320	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Under	52c	7,987$4,153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,833.57	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Under	53c	4,114$2,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,933.58	121	44.6%54 W · 67 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Under	52c	3,333$1,733 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,599.83	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0c…cc5bbacked Over	48c	2,292$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Over	47c	1,849$869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$869.21	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	53c	1,435$757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$677.96	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Over	49c	1,329$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.98	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	46c	1,144$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.44	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	52c	670.48$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.03	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	49c	653.22$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over	48c	520.83$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	369	43.4%160 W · 209 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	44c	462$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.28	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	48c	300$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	50c	230$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	44c	200$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	49c	141$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.6	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd87b…946dbacked Over	43c	56.05$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	50c	56$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	57c	53$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.79	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd586…87cfbacked Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	115	44.3%51 W · 64 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Over	43c	38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.34	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Over	48c	30.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4e…dc93backed Over	47c	27.45$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe215…9578backed Under	58c	25.95$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.95	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+3.1wins	+0.26per pick	57cpaid	+62%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0141…7df4backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.27per pick	50cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event