NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a8b9c8b17915bcc03a1f809d3d18864c0be4779e46f9ac99a9d32b3a97e318e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Pistons, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Pistons | 54c | 3,230$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.17 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks | 47c | 2,702$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.43 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 46c | 2,549$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Pistons | 53c | 2,151$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Pistons | 53c | 2,061$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.33 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1d…1e31backed Bucks | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…2396backed Pistons | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 46c | 1,926$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.03 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 46c | 1,570$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Pistons | 55c | 1,455$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 45c | 1,200$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Bucks | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…cc5bbacked Pistons | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Pistons | 53c | 511.77$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.24 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…dc8dbacked Bucks | 47c | 488.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.76 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 44c | 477.09$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Pistons | 56c | 430$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 49c | 393.95$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.09 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pistons | 54c | 370$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Pistons | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Bucks | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Bucks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Pistons | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons | 52c | 199.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Bucks | 47c | 180$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Pistons | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…1531backed Pistons | 50c | 109.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Pistons | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Bucks | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Bucks | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Bucks | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Pistons | 55c | 85.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Bucks | 48c | 83.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…527abacked Pistons | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Pistons | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Bucks | 46c | 55.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pistons | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Pistons | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Pistons | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Bucks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Pistons | 75c | 43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Bucks | 46c | 42.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Bucks | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Pistons | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Pistons | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…0074backed Bucks | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pistons | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…b5a2backed Pistons | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Bucks | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Bucks | 47c | 34.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Bucks | 46c | 33.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…fccdbacked Bucks | 46c | 32.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…733abacked Bucks | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Pistons | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Pistons | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Pistons | 55c | 22.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. BucksBucks won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.