NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f8049720a1cbf4062a6ac7fe25f99fe57c233c61c9eb410e6fa5ad9ec1ff3cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Pistons, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $565,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $565,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Pistons | 52c | 516,682$268,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268,112.13 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 48c | 200,172$96,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103,604.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Bucks | 48c | 140,000$67,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,800 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Bucks | 48c | 89,555$42,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,568.6 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Bucks | 48c | 57,000$27,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,640 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Bucks | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks | 49c | 16,430$8,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,384.35 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Pistons | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,120 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons | 50c | 11,000$5,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,530 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks | 48c | 10,500$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,460 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 48c | 5,530$2,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,875.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bucks | 49c | 5,390$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,743.34 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Pistons | 50c | 3,333$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.5 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bucks | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 52c | 2,257$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…ff56backed Bucks | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…31d0backed Pistons | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…29f1backed Pistons | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Bucks | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Pistons | 50c | 1,953$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.36 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 48c | 1,881$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 49c | 1,500$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.75 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdc…2fc2backed Pistons | 52c | 1,056$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Pistons | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Bucks | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Pistons | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Bucks | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Bucks | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 49c | 339$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…7935backed Pistons | 50c | 301.62$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Bucks | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Pistons | 50c | 256$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Pistons | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Pistons | 52c | 249.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Pistons | 50c | 244$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bucks | 48c | 241$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.32 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…599fbacked Pistons | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Pistons | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Pistons | 55c | 198$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 50c | 197.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons | 49c | 178.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Pistons | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Pistons | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Bucks | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 26c | 105.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Bucks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Bucks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Pistons | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Pistons | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Pistons | 74c | 72.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Bucks | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Pistons | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Pistons | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pistons | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Bucks | 50c | 53.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Pistons | 52c | 50.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Bucks | 50c | 49.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Pistons | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Bucks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Pistons | 50c | 35.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Pistons | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Pistons | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…b5dbbacked Pistons | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Bucks | 50c | 23.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Pistons | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Pistons | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. BucksBucks won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.