NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x507cbe3c44c07d08a828c8be939bea98efa8da78211909bb59826708c8273c49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 3,634$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 45c | 1,526$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.7 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Under | 57c | 1,404$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.51 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 55c | 1,400$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 772$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.12 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e3ecbacked Under | 58c | 555.52$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 375$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Under | 53c | 229.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 223$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.58 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over | 39c | 207.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…ec5fbacked Under | 58c | 102$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…b227backed Under | 57c | 91.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 42c | 79.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…8bdfbacked Over | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…8960backed Over | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 42c | 32.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 59c | 30.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Over | 41c | 29.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. BucksBucks won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.