NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4dae27530c696acbf3cad008db45cb781a7033e2948f22cc5ba1494bcb87755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,597$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 53c | 2,808$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.98 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 55c | 2,242$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 52c | 2,212$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.54 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 53c | 1,875$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…cc5bbacked Under | 50c | 1,770$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Under | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.46 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 1,482$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.14 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 525$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 49c | 249.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…599fbacked Under | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 51c | 192.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 156$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…e247backed Over | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Over | 45c | 69.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…e9dbbacked Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…dc60backed Under | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. BucksBucks won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.