Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x351fe723038e7f1fa84ba35dfba2ecdde864f269ef1d1c1ffc094bed8481cbf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Yes | 3c | 19,988$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.64 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 7c | 8,039$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.1 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 5,472$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.59 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 3c | 5,050$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,272$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…63acbacked Yes | 3c | 2,987$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 13c | 2,186$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.08 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…7223backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…1db4backed Yes | 17c | 1,873$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,077$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…bcf1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…9b6cbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 7c | 906.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 878.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 4c | 824.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +1,047.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…cd54backed Yes | 6c | 609.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…910bbacked Yes | 10c | 581.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 3c | 544.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 502.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 3c | 499.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 14c | 437.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85af…ffefbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d405backed Yes | 3c | 376.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 323$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 3c | 315.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…451fbacked Yes | 13c | 312.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…a270backed Yes | 4c | 261.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…02b4backed Yes | 17c | 207.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Yes | 14c | 200.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…b9fdbacked Yes | 11c | 183.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 14c | 172.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…0a8ebacked Yes | 15c | 172.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 12c | 166.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 13c | 158.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a08…a56bbacked Yes | 9c | 128.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8249…01a8backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e8…a63dbacked Yes | 12c | 102.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 12c | 99.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Yes | 14c | 96.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.