TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,685

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x057a…3bacbacked No33c11,483$3,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,748.47648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae5…8342backed Yes50c10,200$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes35c8,788$3,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,064.113,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No50c8,731$4,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,365.279455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No66c6,982$4,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.2475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No45c5,612$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.9253645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes78c5,134$3,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,995.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a18…7a20backed Yes67c4,215$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No51c2,599$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.356951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes54c2,044$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.013327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Yes20c1,781$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes16c1,593$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No65c1,462$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.3223842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes8c1,160$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes68c1,036$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.7150%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9034547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes26c961.92$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca4…8ba6backed Yes59c815.2$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00cf…5120backed Yes25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No74c610$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.351136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes26c576.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5422…a780backed Yes66c530.3$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510b…fdedbacked Yes20c527.81$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes9c509.89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.89333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38da…ab6fbacked Yes23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes8c499.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No72c489$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.926347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No50c407.32$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.052,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+72.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes8c286.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8944749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes19c273.15$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525230.8%16 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+193.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8993…222dbacked Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505259.6%31 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes8c260$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.85326.4%14 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc72…bb37backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed Yes45c239$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.55875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca51…ca40backed Yes62c215.36$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ed…3ae6backed Yes52c214.62$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c3…72e6backed Yes73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…451fbacked Yes21c190.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a11…db4bbacked Yes25c163.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x651a…a2ccbacked Yes65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0909…91cabacked Yes66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004369.8%30 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec8…47d7backed Yes77c140.88$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No72c140$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.222332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d40…f95abacked Yes35c126.51$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.281752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x454b…5b8bbacked Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa52…85b7backed Yes79c121$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Yes58c120.37$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.234452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb7f…d5bdbacked No42c119.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.34966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+63.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes19c109.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d7…f3f3backed Yes40c105.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb97e…4d9abacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Yes48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf816…7223backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1860%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-81.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No76c98.88$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2255058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cd0…9fd1backed Yes42c93.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Yes70c92.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.893050%15 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes20c88.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.653647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76f…3f7abacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed No50c76.68$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.013455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x604e…f1cdbacked Yes72c75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.72065%13 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked No70c71.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.68870.5%62 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6926…a128backed Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf45f…dbfdbacked Yes72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf1…7fc8backed No60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed No26c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.45446.3%25 W · 29 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9776…fc56backed Yes42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9981…2d71backed Yes26c56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes68c55.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.951,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b8a…0724backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No42c45.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4713332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146a…36fabacked Yes66c45.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aba…7d56backed Yes72c41.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x625a…7bb3backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d58…d189backed Yes66c39.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10a3…ae13backed Yes64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+45.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb29…358ebacked Yes72c37.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefcb…d5f0backed Yes77c32.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid+10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1986…cf16backed Yes59c32.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd783…9101backed Yes65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d74…1659backed Yes67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f1…e5a1backed Yes53c29.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.58475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked No41c27.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.182045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2981…7f44backed Yes74c20.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3744655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12be…3455backed Yes79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.