College Football · resolved market
California vs. Oregon State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x356ff49a3283e2589f348806fe9c1f2ff5c988d9ea75437f09a80b64d5442ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Californiaof California, Oregon State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Oregon State | 45c | 30,436$13,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,838.89 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed California | 55c | 25,333$13,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,423.12 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Oregon State | 28c | 14,613$4,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,101.33 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked California | 54c | 9,928$5,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,570.2 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked California | 80c | 6,224$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked California | 55c | 5,500$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Oregon State | 49c | 4,508$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.75 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Oregon State | 15c | 3,692$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.74 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…ca28backed California | 56c | 2,739$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked California | 51c | 2,395$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.65 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed California | 51c | 1,852$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.48 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed California | 55c | 1,754$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked California | 49c | 1,400$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.98 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Oregon State | 11c | 1,041$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed California | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed California | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed California | 50c | 996.98$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.49 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed California | 51c | 882.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Oregon State | 52c | 800$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked California | 51c | 730$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.4 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed California | 54c | 573.93$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Oregon State | 60c | 505$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.85 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed California | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed California | 67c | 454.18$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.97 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed California | 50c | 444.6$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed California | 50c | 434.35$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.06 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed California | 52c | 375$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.69 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed California | 48c | 342.53$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.12 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…74bbbacked Oregon State | 51c | 317.94$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Oregon State | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +8.9wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked California | 65c | 294.49$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Oregon State | 55c | 273.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Oregon State | 25c | 224$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked California | 55c | 200.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Oregon State | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 94 | 20.2%19 W · 75 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Oregon State | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked California | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Oregon State | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed California | 55c | 195.01$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked California | 55c | 190.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa320…8232backed Oregon State | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Oregon State | 17c | 181.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed California | 64c | 179.52$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed California | 58c | 171.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Oregon State | 50c | 122$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed California | 49c | 104.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked California | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Oregon State | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…b5c7backed California | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Oregon State | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…eab4backed Oregon State | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Oregon State | 18c | 92.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Oregon State | 46c | 86.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Oregon State | 51c | 68.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Oregon State | 19c | 64.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Oregon State | 48c | 64.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked California | 44c | 60.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed California | 71c | 51.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked California | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked California | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed California | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed California | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Oregon State | 56c | 35.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed California | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Oregon State | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…4992backed California | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…94d4backed California | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed California | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…a87cbacked California | 66c | 25.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Oregon State | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Oregon State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed Oregon State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.