Mls · resolved market
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35809b88342b6bb4a3a24997ba118a49e120b67ecc968b1dcc3ade5c250d85bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 13,412$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,478.48 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 75c | 2,842$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.2 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 12c | 2,204$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 74c | 1,600$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 74c | 1,200$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 24c | 829.17$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 74c | 608.11$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 74c | 592$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 570$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 74c | 460$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 79c | 391$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 345.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 76c | 282.47$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Under | 76c | 261.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 74c | 260$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 74c | 260$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 79c | 222.31$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 166.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 75c | 166$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 75c | 166$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 74c | 156$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 74c | 156$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 17c | 79.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 17c | 62.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Under | 76c | 22.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 76c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 76c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.