La Liga · resolved market
Valencia vs. Sevilla: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35a3b761f8dceb05e577e719e52933edfd9ec2b0a4811b50f730a77f438dd65d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 19c | 16,682$3,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.74 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 43c | 5,077$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.37 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 2c | 1,741$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Under | 57c | 1,525$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.75 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 57c | 1,484$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.07 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Under | 55c | 871$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.95 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 57c | 583.6$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.95 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Over | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 56c | 444$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 422$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.79 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 57c | 414.78$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.36 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Under | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 22c | 320$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 55c | 289.04$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 46c | 269.57$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 260.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Over | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 45c | 91.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x258c…781bbacked Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Over | 17c | 61.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 44c | 58.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 78c | 56.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Under | 70c | 48.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…b08abacked Under | 56c | 31.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…3c01backed Over | 45c | 28.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…8682backed Under | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Under | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…de56backed Under | 77c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valencia vs. Sevilla: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Valencia (-1.5)Sevilla won
- Valencia vs. Sevilla: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Valencia vs. Sevilla: O/U 1.5Over won
- Valencia vs. Sevilla: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.