Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35a9010cc38e4bf6be0a0a52955603e235fb6b3f170563bb9af0f83030142ecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 22c | 6,416$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.06 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 2,927$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.35 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed No | 74c | 2,859$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.28 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64c…e605backed Yes | 6c | 1,573$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 26c | 1,384$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 24c | 1,051$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.26 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…e4b7backed Yes | 26c | 999.18$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 6c | 880.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 20c | 739.74$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 80c | 554.04$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.62 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 542.32$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.27 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…814fbacked Yes | 26c | 537.16$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 77c | 506.16$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 76c | 492.92$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 23c | 492.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 466.18$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.21 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 15c | 372.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 26c | 367.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 79c | 296.9$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 79c | 286.86$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 25c | 248.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 78c | 235.77$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 23c | 233.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 74c | 220.34$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 25c | 195.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed No | 74c | 179.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 27c | 106.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 106.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…610dbacked Yes | 26c | 91.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 18c | 80.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -21.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 25c | 80.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 27c | 72.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Yes | 20c | 67.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 73c | 67.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 22c | 59.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked No | 76c | 50.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 75c | 36.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…340bbacked No | 74c | 31.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 74c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…289dbacked No | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK win on 2026-04-16?Yes won
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.