MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35aa88dfbd5c8a985a464c8487bfd8d2b77d6cb6e6e93c3a23f1a45a9c7dca70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 13c | 37,110$4,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,824.32 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 23c | 8,668$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 15c | 4,812$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.8 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 59c | 3,383$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.14 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 17c | 2,223$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.97 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Athletics | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Athletics | 41c | 1,950$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Athletics | 71c | 1,720$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.29 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Royals | 25c | 1,651$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.39 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Royals | 10c | 1,446$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Royals | 1c | 1,030$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 255 | 11.8%30 W · 225 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Athletics | 41c | 999.93$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.96 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Athletics | 65c | 985.26$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Royals | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59de…de22backed Athletics | 41c | 778.74$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.07 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Royals | 10c | 700$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…a44ebacked Royals | 4c | 597.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…51c6backed Athletics | 74c | 538.02$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.02 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Royals | 2c | 515$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Royals | 59c | 508.94$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Athletics | 41c | 482.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…754fbacked Royals | 11c | 450.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Athletics | 70c | 448.11$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.57 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…0bb9backed Royals | 59c | 423$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…a8e1backed Royals | 59c | 418.64$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Royals | 15c | 369$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Royals | 47c | 343$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Athletics | 52c | 325.86$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.35 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Royals | 63c | 312.09$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.98 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Athletics | 40c | 307.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.47 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Royals | 6c | 275$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 40c | 272.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…0e11backed Royals | 25c | 269.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 429 | 55%236 W · 193 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Royals | 19c | 244.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Royals | 60c | 233$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Athletics | 44c | 225.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Royals | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Athletics | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Royals | 14c | 175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0fe8backed Royals | 59c | 151.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Athletics | 40c | 143.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Athletics | 73c | 125.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…20d0backed Royals | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 404 | 3.5%14 W · 390 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Royals | 17c | 123.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Royals | 21c | 118.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Royals | 16c | 116.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 203 | 43.8%89 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Royals | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Athletics | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…c6debacked Royals | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 122 | 67.2%82 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Athletics | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…7153backed Athletics | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Royals | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Royals | 59c | 88.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics | 41c | 80.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Athletics | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…8516backed Athletics | 78c | 71.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Athletics | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 195 | 66.2%129 W · 66 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 16c | 68.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9938…c7e8backed Athletics | 60c | 67.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…4d0bbacked Royals | 59c | 66.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Royals | 57c | 63.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Athletics | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Royals | 59c | 56.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Royals | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…a6a9backed Athletics | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Royals | 30c | 48.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 192 | 33.3%64 W · 128 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Royals | 58c | 48.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Athletics | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Athletics | 42c | 37.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 850 | 47.4%403 W · 447 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…66afbacked Royals | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 72%118 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Royals | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,388 | 55.1%765 W · 623 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…ed1dbacked Royals | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…beafbacked Athletics | 43c | 28.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…542fbacked Royals | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…4fd6backed Athletics | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Royals | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…98bbbacked Royals | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Athletics | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.