TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,135
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,135 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4488…e319backed Under20c3,290$650 inLost-$650.117740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f8…4078backed Under2c2,668$53 inLost-$53.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over80c2,373$1,899 inWon+$474.676349.2%31 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under19c1,144$217 inLost-$217.4170249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under19c787.66$151 inLost-$150.781,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under17c588.21$100 inLost-$10012848.4%62 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under14c534.08$75 inLost-$74.9499340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under19c319.89$61 inLost-$60.7372850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under20c232.04$47 inLost-$46.6652923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over80c104.54$83 inWon+$21.336247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Under34c99.99$34 inLost-$3410243.1%44 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over77c57.3$44 inWon+$13.4396756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over72c51.55$37 inWon+$14.3438246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae3b…e06ebacked Under28c42.14$12 inLost-$11.81361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x862f…200bbacked Over79c37.97$30 inWon+$7.972673.1%19 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick78cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x884b…c480backed Over80c37.5$30 inWon+$7.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8084…abe8backed Over79c23.81$19 inWon+$53174.2%23 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick78cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over78c21.6$17 inWon+$4.751,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over64c16$10 inWon+$5.8133346.8%156 W · 177 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.