Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68d3e4753a9d632a9f8f84042d93cb1768597afb3bfe193ff691fcd5de841e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 43c | 11,628$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 8,013$4,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,237.36 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 65c | 4,000$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.96 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 35c | 1,783$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.98 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 16c | 1,097$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.43 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 13c | 982.8$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 42c | 801.14$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.28 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 64c | 691.51$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.94 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 680.87$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.39 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 655.26$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.06 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 64c | 604.83$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.01 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 11c | 549.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 66c | 452.93$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Under | 70c | 284.03$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 79c | 236.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed Over | 45c | 202$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 26c | 198.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 177.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 34c | 174.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 34c | 171$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 24c | 152.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 14c | 135.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 11c | 134.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc374…cee1backed Over | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 38c | 86.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 38c | 81.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 61c | 81.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 26c | 76.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 19c | 74.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 67c | 73.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 22c | 70.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 27c | 69.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 18c | 65.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 74c | 53.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450d…b3c4backed Under | 78c | 47.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 36c | 35.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…8cf1backed Over | 39c | 30.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 64c | 29.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 64c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 24.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2688backed Under | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 63c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 69c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.