Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35c7ea432bb5ed043d18c65bb8d69ac4eeecd315f7ec80274b6c7893b8140d39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 44c | 1,026$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.61 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 40c | 937.07$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.7 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 471.6$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 446.85$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 409.84$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 389.89$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 378.83$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 68c | 374.76$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 368.84$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 350.03$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 50c | 313$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 304.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 252.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 205$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 202$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 32c | 199.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 51c | 197.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 195.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 185.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 181.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 169.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 49c | 166$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 158$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 47c | 148.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 44c | 143.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 138$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 136$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 134$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 133.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 133.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 130.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 109.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 49c | 107.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 94.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1dbfbacked Yes | 63c | 85.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 45c | 69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 66.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 64.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 43c | 61.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 60.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 45c | 57.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 45c | 57.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 34c | 53.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 49c | 51.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…fa2bbacked No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 46.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 38c | 41.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 38.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 51c | 36.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 49c | 34.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 52c | 30.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 28.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 45c | 27.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 26.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 51c | 25.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 48c | 25.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 53c | 23.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 20.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.