Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4f9aa5557a0c303997919115509f03c83970351557c63229d773369c1341eca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 62c | 1,138$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.57 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked Yes | 68c | 643.33$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 551.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.73 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 493.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2,155 | 59.6%1,285 W · 870 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 456.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.64 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 447.32$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.38 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 31c | 432.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 800 | 24.8%198 W · 602 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 32c | 411$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 253 | 61.7%156 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 379.23$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 377.94$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.66 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 311.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 1,005 | 51.8%521 W · 484 L | +108.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 55c | 300$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.97 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 285.98$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 16c | 281.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1dbfbacked Yes | 46c | 252.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 239.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 237.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 44c | 224.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 262 | 35.9%94 W · 168 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 966 | 33.3%322 W · 644 L | +27.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 63c | 207.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 411 | 26.5%109 W · 302 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 33c | 203.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 195$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 69c | 195$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 177$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 173.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.37 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 75c | 172.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 42c | 172$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 28c | 166$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.12 | 366 | 52.5%192 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 140.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 140.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 80c | 125.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 120.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked No | 18c | 117.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 157 | 31.2%49 W · 108 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 63c | 109.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…89dabacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 916 | 55.9%512 W · 404 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 781 | 55.3%432 W · 349 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 847 | 48.5%411 W · 436 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 89.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 699 | 46.1%322 W · 377 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 51c | 89.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 198 | 50%99 W · 99 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 86.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 479 | 40.5%194 W · 285 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…8bbebacked Yes | 39c | 76.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 74.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 28c | 71.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 68c | 70.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 69.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 32c | 66.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 66.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 64.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 31c | 62.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 64c | 61.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 57.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,279 | 53.9%690 W · 589 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 56c | 56.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 44c | 54.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 28c | 53.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 53.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 35c | 53.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 606 | 33.2%201 W · 405 L | +36.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 931 | 44.9%418 W · 513 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 46.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 45c | 44.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 167 | 34.1%57 W · 110 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 39.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 30c | 39.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 39.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 38.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 38.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 35.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 44c | 34.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 78c | 31.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 72c | 29.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 151 | 33.1%50 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 55c | 29.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 29.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 215 | 33%71 W · 144 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 52.8%112 W · 100 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 28.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,003 | 71%712 W · 291 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 59c | 27.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,146 | 57.1%654 W · 492 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | -31.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 966 | 51.3%496 W · 470 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 19.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…9f60backed No | 77c | 19.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 68c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 95 | 71.6%68 W · 27 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.