Movies · resolved market
Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35d3150be4fc5740ecbfacb074b80e1140d8e06647238ea6d0c020cf7a4fce6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 2c | 5,583$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 3c | 3,040$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 3c | 2,449$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,759$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,525$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 3c | 1,308$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,203$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,183$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,073$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 3c | 990.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 2c | 866.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 1c | 862.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 2c | 856.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 831.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 3c | 826.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 755.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 3c | 534$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…62f5backed Yes | 3c | 404.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…ae72backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 3c | 345.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked Yes | 5c | 294.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?this page
- Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 23m?No won
- Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 27m?Yes won
- Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 31m?No won
- Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.