Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x360000de9b8c68ba4ed14825b0cf1b189e7a9632ba0b165dce310381a31562b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 9,889$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.08 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked No | 80c | 6,159$4,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.81 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 20c | 4,950$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 4,329$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.27 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…f645backed Yes | 20c | 3,768$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…0602backed Yes | 19c | 2,596$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 2,381$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.29 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,181$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,764$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.07 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…3373backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 20c | 1,481$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,176$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.66 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 15c | 722.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 19c | 706.56$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Yes | 20c | 683.55$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Yes | 20c | 550$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 21c | 538.64$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3b…daa0backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…84c1backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 19c | 355.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 19c | 331$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 21c | 305.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 19c | 299.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…e882backed Yes | 20c | 270$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 80c | 207.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…0b60backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb987…05b6backed Yes | 15c | 187.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Yes | 18c | 184.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 19c | 158$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 20c | 152.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 19c | 149.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…2332backed Yes | 19c | 124.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 19c | 106.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…f5e9backed Yes | 21c | 102.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ed…03ebbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…772cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 19c | 98.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 12c | 95.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -11.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…ddb8backed Yes | 19c | 81.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 18c | 76.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 61.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…be1cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…32eebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…467ebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…ac69backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…195fbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?No won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.